Cycles and Climate.. Anthropogenic Warming or Natural Climatic Forcing
There has been anything but a consensus in Climatology as to the role of increases levels of CO2 into the atmosphere in regards to Future Climate. The Climate Modeling Crowd has largely agreed that increased CO2 leads to an increase in temperature However the last decade has shown their models to be inaccurate at best as a predictor of future Temperature Trends.. I figured this was as good a place as any to put forward this subject to attempt to further my own awareness of the topic. As the public forums on such subjects have become highly politicized. As of right now the Ideas I have come to have faith in are
1. There are cycles within cycles that contribute most of the climate forcing. for example the temperature and weather patterns are greatly effected by the daily temperature change between night and day. Average Daily Highs and lows are effected by changes in levels of Solar radiance do to variations over the course of the year. the shape of our Orbit changes due to gravitational effects from the larger planets known as orbital eccentricity as the eccentricity increases so does the variance between extremes.
axial tilt known as obliquity changes as well in a predictable wobble that effects the amount of radiance at northern latitudes.
Axial procession also known as the great year changes over 26,000 ky. as the north pole moves from pointing towards Polaris to Vega and back again altering when in the year seasons occur
these are a few of the more well known cycles but there are many others such as pacific decadial oscillation.
2. Data suggests CO2 levels tend to rise after an increase in temperature not before as the ocean loses its ability to hold CO2.
3. Water Vapor is has a far greater band of radiation in witch it can absorb temperature meaning it has far greater greenhouse capability then CO2 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Atmospheric_Transmission.png not to mention its levels in the atmosphere are hundreds of times greater then CO2 4% on average water vapor vs .038 CO2. so would not the forcing of water vapor over shadow CO2 forcing?
There are many others I threw these out to start discussion
There is no religion higher then Truth
Replies to This Discussion
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Permalink Reply by Capt. Anand Kumar on
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CO2 is the guy robbing the bank, water vapor is just the getaway driver.
Thus concludes a fairly balanced article. CO2 with its capacity to absorb infra-red radiation actually traps more heat than its small percentage in the atmosphere would suggest. Global warming is a fact whether some scientists or politicians agree with it or not. There is no way water vapor from atmosphere could be reduced, as that would lead to even bigger challenges. There is little we can do to manipulate other phenomena affecting global warming like precession of equinoxes or the gravitational push/pull of other astronomical bodies. All that is within our control to do is to deny the robber entry inside the bank. Check CO2.
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ModeratorPermalink Reply by John on -
The numbers show a heavy consensus that humans have a sizable impact.
A few years back the American Physical Society actually polled its members (an actual membership vote count) and the majority sided with human activity as a primary issue. The others were divided up into 1) APS should not get involved in taking a stand on a political policy issue, 2) No opinion, 3) Humans are not involved.
The climatological models all very much agree in their predictions. As the models get better, the Human effect just gets worse. The models are checked using historical data to assure they agree/predict the last couple centuries. (they do).
The current trend in modelling is to isolate the effects causing the increase in variability and try to understand those factors. Humans keep becoming an ever greater source of the problems as feedback loops are better understood. The scientists tend to be conservative.
The current Sun cycle is near its peak. It is less than expected and it also started at a later time i.e. the trough was longer than normal. This is good news in the climate group. We need the extra time.
John
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Permalink Reply by Hari Menon on
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The Scientist ,The Athiest and the Materialist are the modern prophets , It is their utter hubris which has helped to drag the human intellect to new lows . The fourth dimension is supplied by the lower strata of society called Polictician who after a fashion so intrinsic to the perversions in their profession dislike the useless waste of funds by the Scientists which would otherwise have been theirs . But lacking the sophistry of the Scientist and their major invention viz . the inexhaustible supply of Cause and effect Realtionships , the fourth dimension by virtue of its inherent deviousness (the other three dimension of thought being naiive mostly ) aggrandizes all such things to their advantage . Whatever anyone might say the Emperor is stilll not wearing any clothes even today .
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ModeratorPermalink Reply by John on -
Well, this debate has been going on a long time.
I have never seen it "end" with either side as the "victor". People just go away and get more "facts" to reload the arsenal.
Nature is the ultimate judge. Not a very compassionate one at that.
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ModeratorPermalink Reply by John on -
I forgot to mention that if people want to help pin down actual results, they may be interested in joining:
http://www.climateprediction.net/
Climate models are huge and complex, It is not unusual to get a dataset that will run 1000+ hours (about 1+ months running at 100% ) The software does not interfere with you work. when you are on the computer, the software is not running. No impact. These are also not set up as screen savers (unless you want it to).
John
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