The Hype Cycle - Emerging Trends

Every year tech think-tank Gartner publishes their hype-cycle, an analysis of over 1800 technologies. The hype cycle is an index of how much specific technologies are being talked or written about. It's interesting to note how far in the future adoption is for many of these ideas, such as autonomous automobiles...and how wrong predictions can become so quickly. Yesterday, Google announced the results of 140,000 miles of road testing of autonomous vehicles in the area around their HQ.

There are a few things to understand about this chart, most notably the curve itself.

* The beginning represents the initial introduction of a technology. Everyone is talking and all is excitement. Most of the tech here is at the idea stage. Nobody has actually built anything yet.

* The next stage, at the top of the curve is where you see everything on the covers of magazines and on TV. People are building prototypes, but nothing ready for production.

* The next stage, the Disillusionment represents attempts to move from prototype to production. This is where the most technologies fail as newer technologies prove more promising or efficiencies of scale do not work out.

* Finally, the Slope of Enlightenment represents the emergence of various tech as finally being practical. This is where you see mass adoption and manufacturing take place.

For Theosophists there are a number of implications. First is the question of "what time is it"? I am of the belief that there are numerous influences which affect adoption. Particularly in the realm of "cultural timing". There are numerous ways of expressing this. Many would consider astrology, otherwise some form of psychohistory or other types of predictive analysis.

Also there's the moral implication, not only of the types of tech but also of the rate of adoption. Sometimes the rate of change can be as important as the type of change. People behave strangely when they're not adapting well.

Here is a chart from a press release for their latest report. Enjoy.

The Gartner Hype Cycle 2010